|
As an American political writer on the left, it is quite unusual to see one’s advice being followed. During Barack Obama’s presidency, I argued repeatedly that Democrats badly botched the response to the Great Recession. Thanks in part to backroom maneuverings from then-head of the National Economic Council Larry Summers, the stimulus package of 2009 was roughly half as big as it needed to be. As a result, unemployment was still 10 percent on Election Day 2010—a big reason why Democrats lost 63 seats in the House and six in the Senate, relinquishing full control of Congress that never returned for the duration of Obama’s presidency.
Fast-forward to 2021, and much to my surprise, ol’ Joe Biden and congressional Democrats did exactly what I and other critics recommended. With the economy still coming out of a very severe recession from the pandemic, Biden met the challenge with a $1.9 trillion stimulus. Then he did one better with a trillion-dollar climate bill, a big package of subsidies for advanced manufacturing, and another for infrastructure upgrades. All told, it was probably the most significant set of economic reforms from a Democratic president since the 1960s.
Alas, this did not seem to work out politically as well as I’d hoped. Though Democrats did not get blown out in 2022—they lost the House by a whisker and actually gained a seat in the Senate—it wasn’t the kind of victory that would have validated Biden’s economic approach. Then, of course, the party lost to Donald Trump in 2024.
What happened, and more importantly, what can the next Democratic government learn? I’ve come to three tentative conclusions. First, progressive economic policy, if designed well, works great. Second, progressive policy does not automatically produce political benefits even if it works. Full employment can easily be taken for granted. Structural, supply-side reforms like Biden’s climate policy are particularly invisible to the layman and must be heavily promoted and advertised. Third and perhaps most importantly, the American people absolutely despise inflation. Much as it might pain me and other leftists to admit it, this is a nation that principally identifies as consumers, not workers. Any future president must keep that fact at front of mind for the foreseeable future.
|
