Kuttner on TAP: Will America Be a Democracy Next July 4th?

This Independence Day marks a pivotal, enough-is-enough moment—in the popular reaction against the blend of Supreme Court excess, state government overreach assaulting privacy, and revulsion at the latest January 6th revelations about Donald Trump.

The result has been a startling shift in public opinion about Trump. About half of all Americans now think Trump should be charged with a crime. Most Republicans don’t want Trump to run in 2024.

The Supreme Court has also overreached one time too many. The full power of the backlash against the Dobbs ruling will take weeks and months, as all of the secondary effects become evident—states in the role of Orwellian inquisitors; ob/gyn doctors having to put their anti-abortion snooping ahead of the health of their patients; restrictions on the right to travel.

An American fundamentalist version of the Taliban is now in charge of more than 20 state governments. Most ordinary people don’t want to live under an American Taliban.

These assaults on privacy and liberty will energize activists and also mobilize ordinary people. Polls now show about 60 percent of Americans oppose Dobbs. About 50 percent of Democrats say they are more likely to vote because of the ruling—but only 20 percent of Republicans.

We now have a war between the states, and also within the states, as some cities and district attorneys in states with right-wing governments are refusing to cooperate; and some state courts are finding that legislative attempts to ban abortion violate state constitutions.

So the table has been set for a very different sort of midterm election, which just might spare our country full-on fascism.

One thinks of the 1998 midterm, which was supposed to be a disaster for Democrats. Instead, it was the rare midterm in the sixth year of a presidency when the president’s party gained seats in both houses. Why? Because the Republicans overreached. They were obsessed with Monica Lewinsky and the voters were sick of it.

But it will not be enough for Democrats to expect that they will win back popular support simply by not being Republicans. They have to hang all this lunacy around the necks of their opponents, and give voters an affirmative reason to support them, especially on pocketbook issues where Republicans have been destroying the life chances of ordinary people even as they restrict personal liberties.

So far, President Biden, Vice President Harris, and too much of the party leadership are a long way from seizing the moment. But other candidates can seize it. If they do, and Biden responds to the increasing demands to act like more of a leader in this crisis, we may yet have a July 4th to celebrate next year and the years after.