Kuttner on TAP: Israel-Hamas: The Beginning of the Endgame?

Last week, President Biden startled his senior advisers by blurting out that he hoped for a cease-fire and hostage deal by today (Monday). The day isn’t over, but all signs from Cairo, where negotiations are proceeding, suggest that no immediate deal is happening. Israel didn’t even send negotiators, and Hamas has its own reasons for delaying a cease-fire, which include increasing the global sense of outrage against Israel and revving up Palestinian protests in the occupied West Bank and Israel proper.

The new de facto deadline is the beginning of Ramadan, sundown on March 10. Benjamin Netanyahu continues to threaten an invasion of Rafah in southern Gaza, which would destroy the fragile negotiations.

In the meantime, the Biden administrtation is increasing its own pressure on the Netanyahu government to agree to end the brutalization of civilian Gaza. On Sunday, Vice President Harris significantly increased U.S. criticism of Israel. And Benny Gantz, the most soft-line member of the coalition war cabinet, is in Washington today for meetings with Harris and other top U.S. officials, though not with Biden.

Speaking Sunday in Selma, Alabama, a venue that linked civil rights for African Americans with rights of Palestinians, Harris called the obliteration of Gaza a “humanitarian catastrophe.”

“What we are seeing every day in Gaza is devastating,” Harris said. “We have seen reports of families eating leaves or animal feed. Women giving birth to malnourished babies with little or no medical care. And children dying from malnutrition and dehydration. As I have said many times, too many innocent Palestinians have been killed.” She added, “There must be an immediate cease-fire, for at least the next six weeks.”

The escalation of administration demands on Israel combined with the Gantz mission could signal the beginning of the end for Netanyahu. Whether it signals the beginning of a durable peace deal is far less clear.

Gantz’s visit was not cleared with Netanyahu, and the Israeli press reports that it infuriated him. Gantz, a centrist, is the most pro-peace member of the coalition cabinet. If the government fell, Gantz would likely succeed Netanyahu and be a far more supportive partner for Biden.

However, on Israel’s defense and survival, Gantz, a former military chief of staff and defense minister, is far from a pushover. Gantz has issued an ultimatum to Hamas: Return the hostages by Ramadan, or “the fighting will continue everywhere, to include the Rafah area.”

The fact that Gantz unilaterally decided to come, and with the encouragement of Washington, is a sign of Netanyahu’s weakness. His visit to Washington comes at a moment when Netanyahu’s government is fragmenting from multiple causes, only one of which is whether to embrace a cease-fire.

The Israeli armed forces are short of troops, but the ultra-Orthodox, who are key elements of the current government, are still exempt from military service. Netanyahu has pledged to end this policy. Last week, the war cabinet removed another far-right leader of the coalition, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, from his authority over the Temple Mount, after Ben-Gvir, in a reckless provocation, proposed barring Israeli Arabs from worshipping at the Al-Aqsa Mosque during Ramadan.

A key puzzle in all of this is why Kamala Harris has been elevated to a leading role in negotiations with Israel. In the past, she has not been a major player. It may be that the White House wants to keep Biden at one remove from increasingly hard-line statements on Israel. Or the administration, mindful of Harris’s low public regard, may want to give her a more visible opportunity to lead.

Sooner or later, of course, this is all on Biden. The risk is not that Biden will overplay the pressure on Israel but that he will underplay it, and that Bibi will keep finding ways to sabotage a deal.